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Things You Will Learn

Things You Will Learn

  • Forecasting and its need
  • Types of Forecasting
  • Steps involved in Forecasting
  • Types of Plots – Scatter Plot, Time Plot, Lag Plot, ACF Plot
  • Autocorrelation and Standard Error
  • Common pitfalls of plots and Aspect ratio
  • Time Series Components – Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal and Irregular
  • Ljung box test for identifying randomness
  • Forecasting errors and the measures associated with it
    • Mean Error
    • Mean Absolute Deviation
    • Mean Squared Error
    • Root Mean Squared Error
    • Mean Percentage Error
    • Mean Absolute Percentage Error
  • Forecasting methods based on smoothing
    • Moving Average
    • Exponential Smoothing
  • Decomposition of Time Series into 4 components
    • Additive Model
    • Multiplicative Model
    • Mixed Model
  • Curve fitting – Least square method
  • Simple exponential smoothing (SES)
  • Forecasting strategy – Separate, Forecast and Combine
  • Moving Averages
    • Naive Model
    • Naive Trend Model
    • Simple Average Model
    • Moving Average over K time periods
  • Exponential smoothing
    • Simple exponential smoothing
    • Holt’s version
    • Winter’s modification
  • Modeling Random Component
  • Models for Stationary Time Series
    • Autoregressive Model (AR)
    • Moving Average Model (MA)
    • Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model
    • Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) Model
  • Building seasonality into ARIMA models
  • Simple Linear, Multiple and Weighted Regression
  • Non-linearity detection
    • Scatter plot
    • Partial residual plot
    • Partial regression plot
  • Non-normality detection
    • Normal plot
    • Jarque-Bera Normality test
  • Transformations
    • Box-Cox
    • Box-Tidwell
  • Growth curve – Trend, Linear, Quadratic, Exponential and Sigmoid
  • ARCH & GARCH models

Course Description

About Forecasting Certification Training

Early knowledge is the wealth, even if that knowledge is bit imperfect!!! Wouldn’t you want to unlock the mystery of predicting the stock market? And many of us want to understand how companies are managing their inventory and other resources by forecasting their sales.

Here is the solution in the form forecasting technique also called a time series analysis. Forecasting techniques will be applied for time series data. Forecasting Analytics is considered one of the major branches in big data analytics.

Managers often have to take decisions in an uncertain environment and often find themselves in a bad situation due to a lack of skills in applying the right analytical techniques on the data. Forecasting techniques help companies save millions of dollars by adjusting their production schedules and other plans. Forecasting techniques on univariate and multivariate time series analysis have huge applications across the industries and areas such as Operations Management, Finance & Risk management, Retails, Telecom and manufacturing.

Moving Averages and smoothing methods, Box- Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology, Regression with time series data, Holts-Winter, Arch-Garch and Neural Network are the methods widely used for forecasting. Arch-Garch and Neural Networks are the advanced techniques in the forecasting analytics which will be used to model the high-frequency data such as stock market and Big Data.

  • Electricity usage pattern over a period of years in a region
  • Sales of a product over several years
  • Stock Market Data

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FAQs

  • The all new and exclusive JUMBO PASS is the latest initiative taken by ExcelR to offer you access to attend unlimited batches over the duration of 365 days. You will be able to attend unlimited number of classes for the course of your choice.
  • Forecasting is predicting the future by considering the historical past data. For e.g., companies forecast sales of next quarter by looking into sales of previous quarters. However, data should be in time-series for forecasting future events.
  • Data arranged in a sequence in an order based on time. For e.g., company sales should be arranged in a time sequence (Jan ‘15, Feb ‘15, March ‘15, April ‘15, May ‘15, June ‘15, July ’15) before forecasting the sales of Aug ’15.
  • Forecasting is used across all industries & sectors. Majorly it is applicable for Financial services and insurance, Retail & in weather forecasting.
  • A lot of tools are used including R, SAS, STATA, MATLAB, Minitab, Excel etc. We at ExcelR teach you forecasting on R which is highly in demand.
  • The detailed course outline is provided on the website. All the forecasting models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, ARCH & GARCH models are taught.
  • Yes, forecasting techniques are imperative for one to be a successful data scientist.
  • Instructor-led online training is an interactive mode of training where you and the trainer will log in at the same time and live sessions will be done virtually. These sessions will provide scope for active interaction between you and the trainer.
  • ExcelR offers a blended model of learning. In this model, you can attend classroom, instructor-led live online and e-learning (recorded sessions) with a single enrolment. A combination of these 3 will produce a synergistic impact on the learning. You can attend multiple Instructor-led live online sessions for one year from different trainers at no additional cost with the all new and exclusive JUMBO PASS.
  • It is a live instructor-led interactive session which is done at a specific time where you and the trainer will log in at the same time. The same session will be also recorded and access will be provided to revise, recap or watch any missed session.
  • Not a problem even if you miss a live Forecasting session for some reason. Every session will be recorded and access will be given to all the videos on ExcelR’s state-of-the-art Learning Management System (LMS). You can watch the recorded Forecasting sessions at your own pace and convenience.
  • Yes, after successfully completing the course you will be awarded a course completion certificate from ExcelR.
  • You can reach out to us by visiting our website and interact with our live chat support team. Our customer service representatives will assist you with all your queries. You can also send us an email at [email protected] with your query and our Subject Matter Experts / Sales Team will clarify your queries or call us on 1800-212-2120 (Toll-Free number – India), 608-218-3798 (USA), 800 800 9706 (India), 203-514-6638 (United Kingdom), 128-520-3240 (Australia).
  • The different payment methods accepted by us are
    • Cash
    • Net Banking
    • Cheque
    • Debit Card
    • Credit Card
    • PayPal
    • Visa
    • Mastercard
    • American Express
    • Discover

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ExcelR is a training and consulting firm with its global headquarters in Houston, Texas, USA. Alongside to catering to the tailored needs of students, professionals, corporates and educational institutions across multiple locations, ExcelR opened its offices in multiple strategic locations such as Australia, Malaysia for the ASEAN market, Canada, UK, Romania taking into account the Eastern Europe and South Africa. In addition to these offices, ExcelR believes in building and nurturing future entrepreneurs through its Franchise verticals and hence has awarded in excess of 30 franchises across the globe. This ensures that our quality education and related services reach out to all corners of the world. Furthermore, this resonates with our global strategy of catering to the needs of bridging the gap between the industry and academia globally.

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